Nigerian Presidential Elections

Presidential Elections 2011

      Well I am sure that most of you are aware tomorrow (now today)will be elections for the Federal Republic of Nigeria.  As you also know elections in Nigeria (and sub-Saharan Africa) are typically anything but routine.  Nigeria’s history with respect to elections has been marred by violence, corruption, and massive vote rigging.  In fact, probably the only presidential election that has been considered free and fair in Nigeria was back in 1993.  This being the case, lets take a trip back in time and see what happened then….

      The year is 1993 and Nigerians are anxiously waiting to get to the polls to vote for a new president.  It had been 8 years under General Ibrahim Babangida’s military rule and the world was weary of the International Bad Boy IBB.  There were two main contenders vying for president, M.K.O Abiola a southern Muslim of the Social Democrat Party and Bashir Tofa a northern Muslim of the National Republican Convention.  The circumstances are unique, the candidates are split north/south, but they are both Muslim, which has its own implications in Nigerian politics.  Both are notable businessmen or Ogas, but in the end Abiola wins soundly over Tofa with nearly 59% of the vote including the majority of votes from Tofa’s home state of Kano.

Familiar campaign slogan!

      Now the elections were lauded as free and fair by the international community, which probably caught many off guard considering IBB was at the helm.  Abiola was set to take the reigns, only to be frustrated and eventually hauled off to prison (that’s the bad boy we know).  Initially the results of the election were not released and finally annulled by IBB.  Abiola, however, didn’t give up in 1994 he declared himself president and was quickly rewarded with a jail cell.  I believe he spent 4 to 5 years in prison as president elect, and never relinquished this title, carrying it to his death. 

Bashir Tofa

Ibrahim Babangida (IBB)

      This is a sad end to what is considered Nigeria’s only free and fair presidential elections, only its not the end.  Through the chaos that swept the country as a result of these events IBB was swept aside by a coup d’etat and the late great (sarcasm) Sani Abacha came into power until his death in 1998 (amazing what this guy did in 5 years…sad really).  This is the outcome of that election.

Sani Abacha

      Since Abacha, Nigeria has had three other presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Ardua, and the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.  Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency began only last summer as he stepped up from vice-president after Yar’Ardua’s death.  All of these president’s belong to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).  I spoke of some of the dealings with this party in early posts.

      Currently there are three main contenders for tomorrow’s election.  The incumbent Goodluck Jonathan (PDP), Muhammadu Buhari (Congress for Progessive Change), and Nuhu Ribadu (Action Congress of Nigeria ACN) are the choices for Nigerians. The contenders both have notable backgrounds.  Buhari is a former military head of state that ruled from ’83 – ’85 when he was ousted by a coup by IBB.  Ribadu was the former head of the EFCC, which I can’t remember what the acronym stands for now, but is the anti-corruption agency of the government (not sure how effective this agency is?).  There are actually a number of other candidates, but they are not expected to really show up in the tallies.  The full list follows (I love some of the party names Fresh Democratic Party…I think it was founded by Grand Master Flash). 

President Goodluck Jonathan (Peoples Democratic Party); 
Muhammadu Buhari (Congress for Progressive Change);
Nuhu Ribadu (Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN);
Pat Utomi (Social Democratic Mega Party);
Dele Momodu (National Conscience Party);
Ibrahim Shekarau (All Nigeria Peoples Party); (I believe our buddy Bashir Tofa is also on this ticket)
Akpona Solomon (National Majority Democratic Party);
Chris Nwaokobia (Liberal Democratic Party);
Chris Okotie (Fresh Democratic Party);
Ebiti Ndok (United National Party for Development).
Iheanyichukwu Nnaji (Better Nigeria Progressive Party);
John Dara (National Transformation Party);
Mahmud Waziri (People for Democratic Change)
Nwadike Chikezie (Peoples Mandate Party)
Peter Nwangwu (African Democratic Congress);
Rasheed Shitta-Bey (Mega Progressive Peoples Party)
Yahaya Ndu (African Renaissance Party);
and Ambrose Awuru (Hope Democratic Party).

Muhammadu Buhari and one of his posters

            To be be honest, it is hard to believe that anyone will really make a showing against Jonathan (as my friend noted he belongs to the PDP, Pre-Determined President).  Current polls show him wrapping up nearly 60% of the vote while his nearest rival, Buhari, is expected to get somewhere in the realm of 25%.  The only hope for Buhari is for a run-off, which would happen if Jonathan doesn’t get 25% of the vote in at least 2/3s of the countries 36 states.  If this happens, things could get interesting with the run-off.  The two leading challengers were set to increase the likelihood of this during talks this week to unite the two parties (CPC and CAN) behind Buhari.  However, talks broke down and each party is still backing its own candidate.  Most cite Buhari’s ego and uncompromising ways as the cause for failure of this union. 

 

            So I sit here stuck in our house as movement is restricted as elections take place.  Watching the news it appears that things are going smoothly save some violence in the usual places.  Though there have been some hiccups with the earlier National Assembly elections, Nigerians seem to be confident that these elections will be free and fair.  It is something the country needs.  I feel that the world is skeptical and are simply waiting for another uprising on the continent, another Cote d’Ivoire.  I don’t think this is going to happen.  I believe Nigeria, for all its problems, will get this right (mostly).  I further believe that Nigerians should be proud of this and of their example to the region and the world.  My hope is that a sound election will begin to lift the cloud of apathy that sits thick upon this country, which would be a step for this country towards realizing its potential.  (I also hope I am not being naive). 

        As a side note, I hope that this was interesting for you to read, but I must say it does not compare to sitting and talking with Nigerians about their politics and elections.  There are so many stories behind the stories it is no wonder that this is a country that produces scads of epic soap operas.  Such intrigue!  The stories are interesting and endless, but can leave you not knowing how you feel about a particular candidate or party.  I had such an opportunity last night as I sat with my friend Sesugh discussing such matters.  I’d love to retell our conversation, but that won’t do.  You need to speak with a Nigerian!